Project overview

University of Melbourne required a reliable modelling framework capable of representing coastal behaviour over multiple timescales to support long-term coastal planning.

Tonkin + Taylor developed and calibrated an integrated suite of numerical coastal models to simulate coastal dynamics at Sandringham Beach, Port Phillip Bay, across multiple management timescales. The project supports evidence-based coastal management by enabling robust assessment of future shoreline behaviour, storm impacts and beach nourishment options under changing environmental conditions.

The modelling framework combined storm-scale, medium-term and long-term coastal processes into a single workflow, allowing efficient evaluation of future management scenarios and providing a strong technical foundation for long-term planning.

Services

  • Development and calibration of a storm erosion and inundation model using XBeach-surfbeat.
  • Multi-decadal shoreline change modelling using ShorelineS.
  • Beach profile adjustment modelling using ShoreTrans.
  • Analysis of an existing wave hindcast to define model forcing.
  • Model calibration using:
  • UAV surveys
  • Wave buoy observations
  • Historic aerial photography
  • Satellite imagery
  • Development of an integrated modelling workflow to:
  • Adjust baseline terrain for future sea level rise.
  • Incorporate long-term shoreline trends.
  • Evaluate different beach nourishment scenarios.
  • Generate future digital elevation models (DEMs).
  • Simulate future storm response and shoreline evolution.

Client

  • University of Melbourne (subcontract to the Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action (DEECA))

Year

  • 2022-2023

Multi-model workflow and iterative testing

A key innovation was the development of a multi-model workflow linking complementary coastal models across different temporal scales. This integrated approach enables rapid, iterative testing of future coastal management options while accounting for sea level rise, long-term shoreline change and nourishment strategies within a consistent modelling framework.

High value outcomes

The integration of storm-scale, medium-term and long-term coastal models into a single workflow provides a powerful decision-support tool for coastal managers. The project also demonstrated the value of combining advanced numerical modelling with field monitoring and historical datasets to improve confidence in future coastal predictions.

A summary of the work was presented at the Coast & Ports Conference in 2023 and published in the conference proceedings.

Community + environmental impacts

The project supports improved resilience of Sandringham Beach by informing sustainable coastal management decisions that protect public assets, recreational beaches and community values under future climate change.

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